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>> a very good afternoon. 1:00 eastern. >> i am crazy burns. senators returning to washington from last attempt
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but the house is still out and no new negotiations are scheduled. >> consumer confidence is plunging taking the market down with it. which ended 16 points. trending back and forth. as jobless claims to drop to the lowest level. >> today we look at the un study future of the middle east. what risk lies ahead let's get to speed with the markets are we going over the cliff? consumer confidence is dismal let's go to nicole petallides at new york stock exchange. >> the market under pressure hovering around 13,000 where we're sitting right now. othello's of the day. we have recouped some of the
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losses but we're still down over 100 points. every single component is a red. johnson & johnson. pfizer. aluminum. and materials. jpmorgan that hit a 52 week high it is now a loser. with the vix index look at the levels the volatility index it is a showing and the indication there is nervousness with washington. what will lawmakers do with a decision? this is the highest point* of a one-year term. the highest point* is from july.
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this is the environment right now. it is a holiday but we will watch each sector under pressure. lori: more news then redo this time. tracy: fiscal clef finger-pointing underway in washington. harry reid says they're headed over the cliff. it is really about senator harry reid and mitch mcconnell? >> to develop the political staring contest democrats say republicans need to move and around rego. the president arrived this morning from hawaii and so with the top democrats and republicans but still no update to report. senate majority leader harry
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reid said it looks like we're going over a cliff and it is up to the house. >> speaker boner shed call people back to washington today and should not have let them go. they are not here. john boner cared more about his speakership than the financial footing. >> they're now working on a fiscal clear solutions they say the majority leader should talk less and legislate more. also mitch mcconnell says the leader is happy to review with the president what he has in mind but that a majority has not put forward a plan. when they do members will review legislation to make decisions on how fast -- best to proceed.
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>> it takes time for the house and senate to get something done. if there is a solution agreed to buy political leaders it could take beyond the new year before it gets through congress to the president's desk. tracy: click and expedient. lori: the efficiency. tracy: u.s. government set to hit the legal borrowing limit on monday. 16.$4 trillion federal debt limit beginning to come down and toch congress passes legislation or defaults. treasury secretary tim traders said the treasury would begin to undertake "extraordinary measures to stave off default quote that could $3,200,000,000,000 of additional funding which would give them two more
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months this is creative accounting. we have many. lori: the overspending is the understatement. the bond yield is lower investors are thinking this is the safest bet stocks are falling the dow was off 100 points europe is a mess in china slows down the global economy in dire straits and we cannot stop spending there is no message in interest rates are rising as they should to prepare for another downgrade which is very concerning talking about the economic data
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data, consumer confidence falls over fiscal cliff uncertainty and warning the government is set to hit the legal borrowing limit by a monday. we have bill rodgers from rutgers university professor who is the perfect guest. >> happy holidays. lori: starting with consumer confidence if you look at the psychological impact of the fiscal clift debacle. >> prior to the holidays with a conversation was around wall street and the impasse with the fiscal cliff and today confidence index fell a full six points and fully driven by
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households and main street being concerned about taxes, unemployment insurance benefits so jobs are not being created so this provides the imperative at a higher level for congress. lori: if you hear the cbo says if we do go over the cliff then gdp will drop half a percentage point*? could it be worse we already see the impact of fiscal cliff concerns? >> yes. i respect the cbo numbers and the director that they say this is an estimate. i don't think we go back into a recession, but when i
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talk about this, seven and $87 billion went into the economy to rescue it from the recession. now if we don't pullout $600 billion with the tax creases -- increases so that would have an adverse effect on wall street and main street. we live in a global economy. this sense verbal signals. tracy: what about signals to your stuuents? they are about to enter the job force nobody will hire any time soon. >> hiring is the key number but the good news with jobless claims they suggest the layoffs have begun to
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moderate. it is in the range of a healthy economy. but the bureau of labor statistics said the number of job openings available. look at those who are actively searching there's 12 people for every excuse me for every one job created for people are looking for the job. that ratio has been the same lori: unemployment is still a crisis 3-point doubt station -- but you point* out to shifting with taxes, and and entitlements going to the unemployment
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report next week we are accustomed at the 150,000 payroll and we are satisfied? >> absolutely. the real unemployment rate with 8 million americans working part-time but want to work full-time and 2 million who has stopped searching. instead of 7.7% it is about 14 .4%. what i tell my students if you can stand it, stay in school get the advanced degree. by work with united way. talking to individuals investing with job training. also with part-time and actively searching
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volunteering is a great way to plug holes in the resonate. several years ago meeting with speaker pelosi, the twin deficit the job and the budget deficit. lori: we don't hear that. we have breaking news. urinalysis is a fascinating. deschutes your analysis is fascinating we want to have you back again. tracy: and 14 major ports that are being threatened to be shut down. we will get the latest. lori: also confidence in the global economy is higher suggesting people are picking up more security.
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lori: breaking news. coach avery johnson is fired after a 14 / 14 season start that is not good. >> what did jasey have to say about that? nt is part owner.
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merry christmas. nicole petallides at the new york stock exchange. >> they will be under some real pressure off the stock hitting the 52 week low. looking at the market's we're down 100 points. we have seen the trend throughout december with the fiscal clef the s&p 500 is down 8% and we have to take a lock on negative take a look at the chipmaker the with patent infringement the jury and the judge noted the have to pay one point* $1 billion that could go up because it was willful so now the company tries to oversee and overturn the
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jury verdict. back-and-forth it is down nearly 4%. tracy: that is not good. >> dockworkers are into shutdown the ports the longshoremen association in maritime alliance agreed to talk to mediators. revolving around container royalties the bonuses paid on tonnage so business groups have asked president obama to intervene. florida governor scott has held a conference call to discuss the impact if the standoff is not resolved by saturday midnight. more than 14,000 workers will strike affecting shipping across the country.
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i say let them go. >> there was the 10 day lockout costing $1 million per day. lot of people are looking for work. lori: and that was 10 years ago. tracy: oil is up nearly 3% since christmas. lori: who is the most bankable star in cable television? tom cruise? tracy byrnes? the list is said. did you have a stronger dollar against the euro
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>> energy pricing is losing ground after jumping 3%. we have sandy smith at the
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chicago mercantile exchange. you told us oil would hit $100. we're on our way. >> we are down with today's session. people stepped in to the oil market because it was struggling. it is still negative for the year at underperforming and crude oil is down a percent and again today the word is he'll like it did deal by the end of the year and those who do as an say it will not be right where it will be bad. we still are not talking about growing jobs so there is negative sentiment crude-oil prices down when typically during of big storm prices would go up but
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they're dropping because there is fear we will enter a recession and the country will struggle and they say if we enter the new year we will see higher taxes, lower home values in people struggling. it is not a good. they say that's speaker boner will cave in and we will not get a good deal. >> calls it these oil cliffhanger. >> it is rattling explaining why a trading volume was down there may be at camp saying it is a good price. exxonmobil refinery near
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chicago jeff? >> and a note anything that has made more money than oil but look what is happening right now look at the volume of this is what the debate has done to the volume. money is on the sidelines when million contracts per day with west texas intermediate. contrasts that through last month. only happen million traded last month per day. then yesterday only 75,000 contracts. today we may be back around
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175,000 contracts but "this is it." because of volatility we have had a conflict overseas i talked to some traders to said they missed it because they don't want to be in the market right now with the uncertainty according to phil flynn. lori: the basic fundamentals tracy: stay warm. washington is frozen. not just the nonexistent this coal talks but is leaving the washington d.c. the leadership in the lurch. and why could going up over the cliff the bullish? check out the winners and losers overall.
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>> we will get the market check with the deep sell-off with the nicole petallides at the new york stock exchange replica of the market's stuff is selling it is of classics flight to quality. >> absolutely with this a pate then gold is a good
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example when people don't know where to go. also the u.s. dollar. looking at the dow of 30 components are in the red. financial, a drug, oil, materials, , etc.. of lots of downed air rose below 13,000. you're waiting to hear from harry reid now we will not he is alluding to the fact we will go over the fiscal clef it is not reassuring that is why we see the vix index popping today with four .6% moved to the upside which is significant in brings us of the of the 20
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level line we are seeing a market that is tepid and a nervous. >> el let's continue that discussion on the market. with the fourth straight loss we have the chief investment strategist from raymond james from st. petersburg florida. the weather is better there. what do you see happening? nicole petallides told us where the investors are today but what is the next up? >> inside the beltway when things happen they typically do. i have not totally given up. it will not be for very long but you got a message on monday the decline indicator gave a sell signal station
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-- cells signal it would not be surprising with the three or 5 percent pullback. lori: you're the most optimistic person and and spoken to in three days. they kraft a deal that hits the threshold but encompasses so many other issues? >> having lived inside the l.a. kings typically happen although i am somewhat surprised we did not get an agreement prior to the december 31st date you had high a senior staff names popping into the news like smith and and they pop then it is close but it fell apart. lori: how repositioning your
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clients for the new year? >> we have 20% cash. the stocks are dividend paying that are not market correlated. and some names like covert antenna collects waste and burns it into electricity. lori: that is a good tip. what are you going back beyond? with the dividend taxes and capital gains you might want to lighten up? >> i think cambodians and the dividend will step up. but the only sector i stay away from is where the
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players have been hiding is the consumer staples. they look expensive to me. lori: what your thoughts 2013? wear will be a sandy close? can we refocus on fundamentals and not on washington d.c.? >> yes. was they have an agreement after jennifer's we will reduce the deficit and the debt ceiling and if we get through those then attention will turn back to the fundamentals look at the housing market automobile market i think the economy looks okay. lori: on a bright no. have a happy new year. tracy: congressional leaders
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are expected to return to washington. to hammer out a deal but mother nature has a sense of humor. we have peter barnes that reagan international. they cannot call in their vote. they have to get there? >> absolutely. they have to be there in person. the storm came through yesterday and we had delays and cancellations. now moving up the east coast we have a few delays and cancellations but it looks like it is okay if they can get out from the old airport. nationally fewer flights are canceled the day compared to yesterday. 1800's yesterday but you can see the domino effect that
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the flight radar 24.. all orange airplanes represent flight delays -- flight delays. members of the house to not have to get back right now because there is nothing to vote on. speaker boehner said there waiting on the senate. we're waiting to hear what, if anything. but the speaker says he will give members 48 hours notice before she calls the house back into session. but there are back in session today with non fiscal fifth legislation and harry reid spokesperson i ask the mitch mcconnell spokesperson the same
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question and he said it is possible there could be delays and for the advice to get back here? getting the same advice that we get as mere mortal. >> we would tell them the same thing. check with the airlines to make sure the flight is on time. but things in washington are in good shape. >> the storage is centered over maine but those two senators olympia snowe and susan collins got here before the storm hit. they are here to vote if they have to. tracy: we make a joke about mother nature but they have to get there. >> you almost did not have
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anchors for the 1:00 show. [laughter] we were almost in a body cast. >> will 2013 bring peace to the middle east? call being be violent syria and iran. look at the interest rates. the yield on the 10 year note has a big move down as people pile into the treasury's. along with the flight to quality people suggest that it should be down even more we will be back after this. marr, have a couple of kids, [ children laughing ] move to the country, and live a long, happy life together where they almost never fight about money. [ dog barks ] because right after they get marrd, they'll find some retirement people who are paid on salary, not commission. they'll get straightforward guince and be able to focus on other things, like each other, which isn't rocket science. it's just common sense. from td ameritrade.
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>> i am at m shapiro. wholesales rose it of members to the highest level more than two years. sales were up 15% from the
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same time last year. mortgage rates finished out but the average for the 30 year fixed average was up three point* 3%. after four years on the job the epa's administrator jackson is resigning expecting to leave after the "state of the union" address in january. sea world entertainment filing for the ipo coming three years after the orlando based operator was acquired by blackstone group at 2.5 billion dollars. they purchased them from anheuser-busch and as. this is the latest from fox business, giving you the power to prosper.
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>> russia hosting peace talks to end the civil
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unrest over 20 months. will they encourage president aside to step down? let's go to our correspondent from jerusalem. >> so far the russians have said they will not encourage aside to step down but it must be solved from dialogue. and he said he felt syria could go into a bloody mess but some feel we already have of bloody mess with 45,000 people killed. the rebels tightened the noose on some of the larger power base like damascus and other areas where there is fighting right now but the russians have been the biggest protector that if some point* russia will abandon assad the rebels
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think russia will lose all influence which is what they do not want to do. then there would be a transitional government, of constitution, the election for right now it does not seem they will take any part of the deal. the human toll is astronomical refugees growing exponentially. 150,000 across the border in turkey. also jordan mostly women and children. in the long term what will we do with these people on top of those who have lost loved ones? tracy: humanitarian crisis. will we finally see
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president assad go quietly? a christmas wish for peace and syria. with us we have volleyed carries you know, this better than anyone. starting with egypt president morsi completes a referendum you say it is the totalitarian it is long state? >> and a referendum without democracy moving forward but without acting as a democratic president in egypt despite the fall of dictator it is established by president marcy most of
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symbols -- societe they all oppose morsi so it does not look like in 2013 we will see a more democratic egypt. tracy: then what is the point*? the people overthrow the government then they are no closer. >> looked at the french revolution. tracy: so we could see more revolts in egypt? >> in 2013 we surely will see more revolt against the muslim brotherhood and a clash between the brotherhood tried to assert there power and civil society to dislodge them.
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tracy: now syria. will they put in a transitional government? >> whatever happens between now and half of 2013 anything would need to retrieve months to stabilize the country. the militia are not up for an agreement including assad. he is afraid of any agreement that they will take care about. at least the next 34 months we do not see an agreement unless russia will enforce the agreement. tracy: if we get involved is another show. iran. some days the regime is comical. >> three or four years we have claimed those sanctions
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are working but they are but not on the regime. they work on the people who are underdress. the regime has taken a van should stage -- advantage of the sanctions they have the leverage to syria supporting the assad regime and to love and on and destabilizing the arabian peninsula. they're doing a lot of expansion. tracy: you are so terrific t30. if it is going to be safer you answered no where close. please come back. >> happy new year. lori: the u.s. markets, not really. nothing new.
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the losses are getting worse 130 points on the dow nicole petallides we're 20 points off selling across the board. the dow was down again. the nasdaq and s&p with accelerated selling. said drug stocks, the bank stocks are in the red. was named to follow closely is domino's pizza. but oppenheimer talks about dominoes that in 2013 it may be a pop bright spot they raise the price target $50. coming to customer service on nine sure bonnie joe she
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has a clear winner of names to have fallen from grace. >> getting more bang for the box which stars have the best return on investment? next. there are winners and losers although there are mostly in losses. ♪
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>> what was your ago to holiday shopping website? amazon topped the list for customer satisfaction and shibani shows us the winners and a look -- losers. >> they could have asked us. >> we're not the only ones according to the of and
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research company the results have been released. a amazon the eighth year in a row and ease of the site. l.l. bean. qvc. estee lauder. some of the bottom sites. i have never heard of some of those companies. it is not a surprise but what is are those that saw the biggest drop. j.c. penney the biggest loser because there is identity crisis and also apple. decided drop of three points
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as the company looks to sell more product the web site got more confusing. amazon release of the year end and holidays summary of top items. "50 shades of grey" no surprise. purchasers bought enough tvs to cover every field of the nfl. they sold enough christmas tree lamps to reach the top of mount everest. >> i will get that in the late lamp. it is fabulous. >> they had a restaurant downtown we always take pictures. >> it is excellent the answer we're waiting for who
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is the hollywood most bankable star? natalie portman. has the number one spot. earning a record $42 for every dollar paid. black swan she won best actress was only produced a 30 million but earned 329 million. second place kristin stewart she is the "twilight" girl. pursue more than $3 billion worldwide she brings then it just over $40. eddie murphy on the returns and $2.30 he is old but he is funny. >> i love that metric. the fiscal cliff's blame itak
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all onin the class. is it too late for a deal? stick with us.ot is computer-anid coffee tastes dreadful. geico. 15 minutes could save you 15 % or more on car insurance. someone get me a latte will ya, please?
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:00 eastern, sharp sell-off underway on concerned we are about to tumble of the fiscal cliff, not a good sign from washington. good afternoon from lori rothman. tracy: no deal in sight. stock trading near their lowest level of the day with five days until the fiscal cliff, we hit it, we had done. washington bureau chief is going to tell us the only way he sees a deal getting done. lori: we are running against the debt ceiling again. and we just raise that? we are borrowing again. new mixed signals on the economy. jobless claims fell to a 5-year low but consumer confidence tumbled as well. the director of economic policy senior fellow kevin hasic will be joining us. tracy: the northeast digging out for several inches of snow and more is on the way.
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will it be at wet blanket for retailers this critical shopping weekend? time for stocks as we do every 15 minutes, back to nicole petallides on the floor of the stock exchange. 130 points, could be a lot worse considering what we have been going through. nicole: we were talking about the top of the show, confidence numbers, americans felt the lowest level in four months and what we are seeing is the fiscal cliff worries could be to blame for the sudden drop. we are not seeing people jump into the markets here. they're moving to the safe haven. the fear index, the upside, volatility, this morning started to the upside, the idea that we will hear from lawmakers, the time got pushed back, we thought it would be around lunchtime or
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3:00 and the truth is we have gotten together and working on it but no real findings, no solution and as a result we have this marked under pressure. tracy: we have plenty of time. i always thought you were debbie downer. the new year's resolution is not to go for the fiscal cliff. lori: i will just keep saying and be done. tracy: president obama and the senate back in office, senator harry reid is the latest to say it looks like we are headed to tumble over the cliff. let's check with rich edson with the latest. >> tracy will have to come up with a new term. we will be saying this afternoon years. democrats and republicans deck at each other saying it is your turn to make a move, up to you
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to move next, no movement on capitol hill, and there was speculation the white house would send a proposal to capitol hill and that has been denied by an aide to the senate majority leader, harry reid taking to the senate floor saying he thinks it looks like we are headed over the fiscal cliff and he hang that on the house. >> if we go over the cliff and it looks like that is where we are headed the house of representatives, with four days left after the first of the year, are not here with the speaker having told them give them 48 hours notice. i can imagine their consciences, out wherever they are around the country and we are here trying to get something done. >> response from the speaker's office saying senator harry reid should talk wes and legislate more. the house have already passed legislation to avoid the fiscal cliff. democrats have not. house republicans passed a bill
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a few months ago, in the manner they wanted extending the current tax rates. democrats a few months ago passed their preferred option letting taxes increase for families earning more than $250,000 a year so both sides are now on their opening position. even if lawmakers, congressional leaders work out a deal at the top level will take days probably for anything to get through the house and senate. tracy: just to be cleared john boehner said he would give him 48 hours notice will for they had to come back. if he calls them today they don't have to be back for 48 hours. >> right. they have a conference call, republican conference in 30 minutes to discuss their next move. they announced they are coming back, the earliest they would be back in session would be saturday but even if lawmakers are you there is no deal yet, the upper echelons of congressional leadership that would have them vote on anything so we are waiting for congressional leaders to work
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something out and we are not at the phase where rank-and-file lawmakers and senators would vote. tracy: so much for a slow news week. why come back? no reason to come back. the clock ticking down what are the chances for the fiscal cliff deal? let's look on the bright side here. washington bureau chief, i am being facetious when i say my new year's resolution is to say fiscal quote never again, but we could get a quick fix and potentially not have to see these two word again? >> we could. sometimes things are darkest before the dawn and sometime darkest before they go completely black. it is hard to know what is the case in washington. here is how you could get a deal quickly. it would be a minimalist deal that does the bare minimum necessary to prevent the big tax increases and spending cuts that bill along with going off of the cliff. the way it could happen is if
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the senate decides to take the bill ridge referred to that the senate passed weeks ago that essentially continued george bush era tax breaks for everybody, took that bill and amended to suit democrats which is to say to reduce those tax rates that will be extended to $250,000 and below, tack on a couple things everybody wants to get done like extending the alternative minimum tax exclusion for lots of people and extending some unemployment insurance benefits and take that bill and send it back to the house. the senate acting on a bill that house passed long ago and see if the house would have the votes to pass it. the only way that gets done is with some republican votes in the senate and a big chunk, half of the republican caucus in the house. could that be done? i don't know. the politics are tricky. tracy: we are down to harry reid and mitch mcconnell starting to have conversations. >> the action is in the senate. we cannot talk about the house where we spent last month
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talking about the house and the white house. the place to keep your eye on is the senate as harry reid and mitch mcconnell will be doing more out of public view than they will win public view which make it hard to analyze. maybe they are doing nothing but history in the last couple crises suggest at this hour the people to watch are those two. tracy: you are saying until the 30 first potentially we get republicans to come to the middle on this week it had a deal by midnight on the 30 first. >> what would have to happen for the scenario i just described would come to pass is you have to have mitch mcconnell and senate republicans agreed to let it come to a vote and not obstruct or block it. if they did if it got to a vote in the senate there would be a few republicans who would support it and that would be enough to get through the senate and back to the house the question is how many house republicans would vote for something that extends tax rates for many people but not all people into next year. they would have to vote to raise
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taxes but by not voting to keep taxes low for some people at the top end the would be letting them rise on their own. is that good enough? we will find out. tracy: got to ask about the debt ceiling. technically we hit it monday. tii geithner said he would use for the accounting to give us more time. how does this play into the mix? >> not clear. $64,000 question. the white house tried to keep out of it and republicans tempted to bring it in. we have until february before that becomes the question. something has to happen before we get the debt ceiling and we will be back at it when that time arises i think. tracy: i hope you are right. thank you very much. as if the fiscal cliff wasn't bad enough, tim geithner now taking on emergency action on our nation's that. we are about to run up on another debt ceiling. liz macdonald amistad index. lori: we have apple ceo tim cook taking the giant pay cuts in his
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first full year on the job. 2 -- hundred of millions of dollars. details coming up. as we do every day at this time, take a look at oil. oil down a little bit, $90.63 a barrel. we will be right back. let
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tracy: tim geithner taking people by surprise a new u.s. will hit the desk limits on monday. we don't have enough going on. this is months earlier than expected. liz macdonald is here with the bottom line. now what? liz: we have the treasury secretary's letter that was sent to harry reid and other members of congress where he is invoking extraordinary measures to avoid having the u.s. default on its debts. it needs to pay interest costs on the debt that is rolling over so suspending sale of u.s. securities to local governments when the locals basically cash out or get the new t-bonds, to come up with cash and suspending payments to government pensions and also the u.s. post office for those pensions there and capping possibly the exchange
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stabilization fund. all these measures we have seen off and on sincc 1962, 70 times. tracy: why have a debt ceiling every year? liz: it feels that way. my favorite maneuver was in 2009 when the treasury rated go wall street bailout fund but what is interesting this time is the treasury secretary is saying two things, watch out, your tax refund may get delayed. the tax filing season may be delayed because of this fight that is going on but he is a sharing markets on the last page of his letter, we will not be selling the nation's gold. none of the gold will be touched and any of the financial assets picked up during the financial meltdown will not be selling that either. they don't want to rock the market and ruin these assets and ruin confidence in those assets particularly gold. we have to make note of gold not being sold out of the u.s.
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treasury. lori: i am preserving confidence. there it is again. tracy: a quarter past the hour. as we do every 15 minutes, nicole petallides on the floor of the stock exchange, legal matters driving a couple stocks. nicole: a couple of $1 billion stories, let's start off, looking at marvel technology and seeing stocks on the move to the down side down nearly 5% and that is because we had a jury infringing patents and now of course they are fighting against that but in the meantime they have to pay out more than $1 billion and stock down 5% and look at toyota motor which toyota motor is not admitting wrongdoing. on the contrary. but they have agreed to pay out $1.1 billion to operators of sixteen million cars, remember
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sticky gas pedals? ttat is what they are talking about. this doesn't cover wrongful death or injury but it sixes uncertainty, toyota up 1.3%. lori: 2012 has the tough year for many workers but a 99% pay cut? one way to look at it. that is what is going on with apple ceo tim cook. according to an sec filing he is in line for the most drastic here over year pay cut in the history of apple but consider all the ways he is paid, base salary and stock option. in 2012 he made just $4.17 million compared to $378 million in 2011 and $59 million in 2010, got some stock options. the lower -- part of the plan, ceo in 2011 the board gave him a restricted shares with $376 million. because of that board did not
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grant any additional stocks. he still makes more than the late steve jobs, he had a $1 salary every year over his stock options. it is easy to say he is being punished for the stock price decline in apple but i think it was set up before, the precipitous decline. tracy: should heat man up and take $1? lori: i think a company like apple with its huge cash turn and the money it makes probably one of the toughest ceo jobs, probably earns it. tracy: plenty of apple products. lori: we should really judge, that is what the board is for, all of these -- tracy: very diplomatic of view. new applications for jobless claims fall to a five year low. is this a sign of real progress
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or a technicality tied to the holidays? economist and senior fellow kevin hasset at that. lori: major trading partners around world. it is stronger, people flocking to the dollar, flocking to u.s. treasurys, running out and raising for the exodus, u.s. equities market, it is the fight for equality under way. we're back after this.
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tracy: three trading days left in 2012. all eyes on the fiscal cliff, sandra smith looking at our commodities are reacting in today's trade. sandra: you her glory before the commercial, major crisis of safety going on, in the bond market. and selling the commodities markets. a lot of agricultural commodities getting hit. you enter a recession and folks spend less on food and energy, food oil prices topped $90 a barrel, on the decline in
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today's session still looking at the $90 mark. natural gas despite the storm, and we see gas prices come down. there's liquidation in the commodities market into the dollar and bond market. and the trading session, the best performer on the cme, that is silver and gold prices doing very well today, gold prices, and traders down here, and go to precious-metals, gold and silver, that trade is back. tracy: there's a little bit of a play on the economy as well. these guys know more than we do. sandra smith at the cme. lori: they all know more than i do. tracy: jobless claims in
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particular fallen to a level of 350,000, that is a five year low. and holiday , and the fed board of governors, what do you make about turning a four year low here? >> very strong today. continue the trend, and ridge acclaims down 100,000 from november. and the only sign of hope, the investment data is not so good. hiring is happening, the labor market is a lot stronger. lori: is momentum poised to continue? a hundred fifty thousand barrels added, would you forecasting? >> if you take these claims data, pretty much what the payroll data would be and it would be around 150, a solid
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month. it will depend on the fiscal cliff. if we go off the cliff and stay off of the cliff when we plummet down, in the next six to nine months. if they say they are going off of the cliff now but going to fix it early next year may be markets give washington a month or two to get their house in order. if that happens we will tread water for a while but not going to see a real problem. i don't think there's a cliff on january 1st that we cannot change withholdings, keep government spending going at the rate it is going so even though they don't fix it which is the way it looks right now doesn't mean we are going to tank right away in january provided markets believe eventually washington will get it done. lori: if you look of the message a number markets today, pete sell-off, stocks piling into treasuries, gold is up and oil is backing off, you have to wonder what is around the corner. can you be bullish at all at this point?
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>> you can be very bullish if you look at the labour market data today, provided they get this thing fixed. [talking over each other] lori: senator harry reid is saying i think we are heading for the cliff and poised to go over it. >> right. don't forget the democrats have a tactic of going off the cliff. they believe if we go over the cliff and fix it next year than republicans will be able to vote for tax cuts for the middle-class that leave out tax cuts for the rich and won't be technically breaking their pledge not to increase taxes. lori: back off of politics. i'm curious about your take on the economy because the third quarter was revised upwards to over 3% growth. pretty good. you mentioned jobs, we're seeing some momentum, improvement in labor situation, housing is looking better, spending, questionable, almost like the economy, the domestic economy is like a powder keg ready to explode and to the good side meaning growth, not fall off a
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cliff, take a quick if you can out of the picture. how are the fundamentals of the economy? can you evaluate it without this other stuff going on in washington? >> the way to think about it is the economy in the fourth quarter is growing 1.5% to 2%. everyone's numbers around there. that is disappointing. the average in the postwar period was closer to 3 so we can do better. one of the reasons we are not doing better is there's so much uncertainty what government is going to do. i do believe we could have a great year next year provided that washington gets out of the way and it is annoying, these guys in washington are acting like kindergartners but if they get their act together everything else is poised to boom. tracy: you hope they put politics aside and evaluate what is in the best interests of the nation and our job situation. thank you so much. >> that happens sometimes.
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lori: thank you. tracy: that is really optimistic. you have to be. coming up no progress on the fiscal cliff, so much for glass half full. no deal before the new year actually be a good thing for the cash strapped states? gerri willis is on that story next. lori: great for your loved ones. or is it really great? we will face that. lori: let's look at winners and losers, mostly down market today. expedia, adp, all up by 1%. back after this.
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tracy: need to check the markets
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as we do every 15 minutes. nicole petallides on the floor of the stock exchange. nicole: we are not too far off of session lows, down 142 points, what do you think? you are starting to think inside washington is a breaking down. >> there's always the inside game and outside game and for two months you could tell what was going on, they would come out and talk to their constituencies where republicans or democrats but not saying anything bad about one another and also sending messages that the talks were going well inside. i am starting to see that break down so the inside game is starting to break down and you saw that with the first shot out of harry reid effectively calling john boehner a dictator. when you see that kind of backbiting going on and start leaking documents and if you see that forget about any detail before monday. nicole: let's get down and dirty in washington. our markets have been suffering since december, we have seen a
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lot of down arrows. is this likely to continue? >> i think it will. the margin is reacting to the headline. we have given everything back in december and broke through strong support levels, now is 95. there is a bullish sentiment as long as politicians get out of the way we will let the market take care of itself but until we get to that point we will suffer these headlines. nicole: the breakdown washington and on wall street. tracy: i wish he was right but the politicians have to get out of away. the only way to do that is divert their planes to hawaii or something and they will be -- lori: that did happen with the president. maybe they should all go to oahu. suffer with the headlines. that is will we do with the dow down 134 points. as congress and the white house failed to gain traction in talks
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to avoid the cliff states could stand to benefit from a surge in estate taxes. gerri willis is on the story. gerri: estate taxes definitely, higher collections of estate taxes. that will be exciting. a lot of attention today, what is going on with consumers, and the federal government. you look at the federal reserve saying consumers are paying the debt down faster. the fastest since 1994. tracy: we had a dismal spending season and they are charging it. gerri: four years of trillion dollar debt, $16 trillion of debt, it goes on and on and no solution in sight. rich edson, something out of the brady bunch or the addams family, people can't agree on absolutely anything at all. shocking the degree to which we have lost all spending control whatsoever. we want to keep on spending instead of paying our bills. this happening at the same time
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taxpayers are getting their act together. tracy: we are talking-ceiling on monday, we are potentially cutting here, cutting their, it is no the engineers at that end of the day. we will approach this again in february. >> we're blowing right through the deadline. put a fork in it. no way will get done and we had hopeful segments from people from the wall street journal and i appreciate that but at the end of the day we won't make and will be gained this you we can get done at the end of the day. i don't see any big change. nothing massive that will impress anybody who has any kind of fiscal austerity. tracy: desperate attempt to say states might benefit additional revenues from higher state taxes. gerri: how many times be have to die this year so your loved ones get the benefits -- tracy: smart wealthy people will show for them. california said it would benefit
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from the facebook ipo but look how well that turned out. we are grasping at straws to find an outside. but not so much. gerri: i can't find the up side here. i did find one upside, consumers are saving more money. you know how much economists love to make fun of consumers and say they're the chum in the economy and always span whether they have money or not, not any more. they finally got the message. only washington could too. lori: the willis report at 6:00 eastern on fox business. tracy: coming up wall street discouraged by the fiscal cliff. where the safe place to put your money? bob will weigh in next. lori: interest rates, people snapping up on less less security for their money. the ten year note is pushing down the yield to 1.70% level,
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after 30 years, 2.7% and down four basis points. joe woods' f. and his new boss told him twongs -- cook what you love, and save your money. joe doesn't know it yet, but he'll wk his way up from busser to waiter to chef before opening a restaurant specializing in fish and me from the great northwest. he'll start investing early, hll find some good people to help guide him, nde'll set money aside from his first day of work to his last, which isn't rocket science. it's just common sense. from td ameritrade.
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>> i am adam shapiro. ford planning to invest $770 million on new equipment and capacity, 6 manufacturing facilities in southeast michigan, the automaker says it is part of a commitment of $6 billion in plants nationwide by 2015. nokia selling its lineup of smart phone that discounted post holiday prices. wall street journal reports it is betting on the success of its new phones to soften the blow following a string of financial, and amazon.com is the place to go for online shopping, according to a new survey the company which measures customer satisfaction says amazon took the top spot thanks in part to
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its wide variety of merchandise and user-friendly title. that is the latest from the fox business network giving you the power to prosper.
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tracy: stocks in the red after harry reid says it looks like we are flying over the fiscal cliff. the budget crisis is trickling down to consumers. confidence level fell to a four month low, to get its act together. the chief market strategist, the market hasn't forced governments to get back together yet. you believe it is going to next couple days? >> it will be a pretty typical debt that is going to happen. we are probably going to go work over the beginning of the new year and let's face it, the republicans want to essentially
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say to their constituent base that we cut your taxes and the fact that taxes will increase to whatever rates they are, 40% may be and then they can say we compromise and reach a deal and giving you a tax cut. it is not going to fly on the part of the american public. they understand what they are doing. but it is going to be whether or not they remember it once elections come around again and i hope they do. lori: seems like short-term memory sometimes. what are you telling your clients? a you telling your clients to gather cash because there could be a buying opportunity once they go over the cliff? >> this is an opportunity. if we get to january to the second week of january and still don't see a deal coming done, the market is going to sell off hard, trying -- [talking over each other] if you don't see any real movement by the end of the
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second week is going to show in the stock market. lori: you are saying fundamentals are great, so died in. >> the overall economy is doing quite well except we have the fiscal cliff issue. if you look at the employment situation that has stabilized and showing an improvement, you look at what is going on in the united states as far as manufacturing is concerned, housing prices have done well, housing sales of the unwelcome consumers, they still want to spend the being put off by this issue. lori: what sectors of i jump into? >> it will be extremely difficult but what you want to do is concentrate on things like financials, they will see a major rebound once we get some compromise. you will look at energy because we will look at consumer discretion and have exposure to the technology sector. lori: what is the mistake investors are making in the midst of this? >> getting wrapped up with this
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noise. a deal will come down but if you wait for the bottom to come, a market breaking apart, all hell breaking loose you will miss out because you'll be sitting on the sidelines. do some buying as the market pulls back and don't worry about catching a falling knife. tracy: don't fight when it is coming down. good stuff. people are panicking. the dow is down 130 below 13,000. one of the most popular shows ever aired on public television premieres next month but can a plot twist state secrets in this age of the internet? dennis kneale has that story. notes boilers. it is a warning. dennis: here is a sticky wicket for fans of british aristocracy. the much beloved miniseries downtown abby premieres on public television but you can learn every secret of the new season right here on line.
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for the uninitiated it is a fictional country estate inhabited by the aristocratic callie family and many servants post-world war i. board me to tears. a car chase or bikini's long before i watch 30 seconds of masterpiece theater but downtown abby is a mainstream hits with the highest rated show on public television last year, won a golden globe, prime time emmy, guinness book of world records dean did the most critically acclaimed english language tv show of 2011 but that makes its popularity more vexing that the key plot twists which americans won't see until june are revealed now online. thewrath.com made sure to give readers this spoiler alert. don't read this if you don't know what happens in the christmas special in the u.k. and then type is on the search box on twitter you get loads of comments including this one warning people to avoid the
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papers today followed by a spoiler tweet save one particular actor is leaving the series. i have it on good authority that a key member of the crowley family dies tragically near the end of the new season. i can tell you who it is but that would be wrong. lori: you are pathetic. dennis: y? tracy: bathing suits and chases? [talking over each other] lori: compelling and so well done and there is no bad language, no nudity but the story is so interesting. the fact -- that is my point. you don't need it. tracy: got to run but we will continue this debate off camera. lori: best show on television. tracy: we have breaking news. [talking over each other] tracy: gop conference call. eric cantor ridge just announce the house plans to return on sunday at 6:30 p.m. and will be
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in session sunday through friday, that is after new year's by my calendar, still awaiting senate action but will be back on sunday, 40 hours that you were talking about. it is time for stocks. we head back to nicole petallides on the floor of the stock exchange. nicole: the best levels of the last few hours and wonder if people are saying i like it, put me in extra effort. a moment ago, the last half hour we were down 140 points so we are seeing some improvement in the market right now. let's talk about two names on the move, smith and wesson we are talking about, saw them selling off dramatically after the shooting in connecticut. just 3.5%, repurchasing of $15 million in shares. also dominos pizza, a great
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performer today and stock hitting an all-time high, oppenheimer raising the price to $50 and earnings per share, a vase a domino's pizza looking good, potential bright spot to the year 2013. tracy: coming up talking about the weather, a winter storm wreaking havoc on post holiday travel. how could it impact critical weekend for retailers? lori: look at today's winners and losers. dow down 100 points. as we head to break, there you are. nasdaq winners. there are some. we will be right back. my point was that -- [ malennouncer ] it's ttime of year again. time for citi price rewind. because your daughter really wants that pink castle thing. and you realldon't want to pay more than you have to. only citi price rewind automatically searches for the lowest price. and if it findone, you get refunded the difference. just use your citi card and register your purchase online. have a super sparkly day! ok. [ male announcer ] now all youeed is a magic carriage.
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liz: and lori: went to storm blanketing the northeast with no forcing
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thousands of flights to be canceled. in clark'sville, pa. what is it like out there now? >> it is gorgeous behind me but this fuss -- this is a serious storm. more snow is expected into the night as we approach the evening commute. black ice is a major concern. snow advisories in several states, eastern new york and across new england, new york governor andrew cuomo set up an emergency operations center and is also warning the power companies to be on their toes especially after they have been criticized following superstorm sandy for their slow response getting lights turned back on. we have seen a lot of plows going in tandem trying to work the roadways. officially possible but salt trucks have been out and about but some folks in upstate new york are used to lake effect snow but this first storm of the
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season, off-guard. >> you can never be prepared for this kind of stuff i don't care how long you live here, you can never be prepared for this kind of stuff. it is cold. it has got to get done. >> roadways are absolutely nasty in some places. listen to what some commuters are saying. >> a little bit slippery. you have to drive slow because you see accidents everywhere. >> the main roads were eyes. everyone was averaging 15, 20 miles an hour. >> more than 500 flights have been canceled, 1600 flights canceled yesterday. as far as airports go there running on a two hour delay at la guardia. liz: stay warm. lori: how will this affect retail sales which are coming off of the worst holiday season for years? joining me with some answers, evan gold, analytic senior vice
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president of client services. nice to see you. what is your take on retail spending? how will this storm affect the grim fourth quarter spending season? >> great to be here. the weather is having an impact on roads, rail and the sky. people are able to get out and most of the major population centers and get to the local mall or shopping center and redeem their gift cards. we did see reports out yesterday in terms of holiday spending but i still think we have a ways to go before we close the book on this holiday season where this week following christmas, the biggest shopping days of the year and expect a lot of folks to be redeeming gift cards which is when retailers will recognize that revenues so i expected to be a little bit better and wouldn't close the book on that. lori: retailers as our viewers know don't book revenue went to the gift cards actually used and we talked to analysts, all types
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of analysts in the retail sector, toy analysts think there's no popular ploy this year. people didn't know what to buy the kids. there are always toys out there but no one hot item. it was easier to give the gift card or the online gift certificate. until that is booked as revenue we are not going to know. what other factors are out there besides the shopping days, the sales that round out thh year that could actually improve the spending picture? >> there are a lot of other factors out there and one thing we watch closely is the weather and with a lot of gift cards allow they're waiting to be redeemed the weather becomes a larger factor in terms of what people off redeem those items on. we were talking about the winter storm that is in place. we have another storm potential for this weekend. for retailers selling apparel like outerwhere, boots, sweaters, there's an opportunity
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to start clearing that product because as the weather gets cold and snowy there is triggering to buy those items and not just the apparel and mass merchants and home centers there's opportunity for folks. if you didn't get that snowblower you might be recognized in the need to make that pressure. liz: you -- lori: you have someone not spending and not traveling, buying snow blowers and warm clothes. bad weather like this, does it ultimately help the economy or hurt it? tough question but in this case what do you think? >> it is on a sector by sector basis. folks in the impact areas that can't get out right now, there's a negative impact to entertainment centers, movie theaters, restaurants but folks that can get to the mall, it is good news and we were talking
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earlier around the ski resorts and this is an ideal scenario. if you pick this week to do your skiing and ideal week to do your vacation, all of the snow is happening in areas where people want it at. there is opportunity, more on the sector by sector basis, the soft line, certainly the ski resorts are doing very well and expect them to do very well over the next couple days. lori: appreciate your analysis. thanks so much. ashley webster is here all geared up to take you through the last hour of trading, fox business exclusive, one of the highest forecasts for the new year. "countdown to the closing bell" is next.
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Markets Now
FOX Business December 27, 2012 1:00pm-3:00pm EST

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TOPIC FREQUENCY Washington 20, Harry Reid 14, U.s. 9, Us 7, Mitch Mcconnell 6, Syria 5, Citi 4, Russia 4, Assad 3, New York 3, Nicole Petallides 3, Liz Macdonald 2, Tim Cook 2, Tim Geithner 2, Gerri Willis 2, Cialis 2, Toyota 2, Apple 2, Treasury 2, John Boehner 2
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